LET THE LIGHT FROM THE TAHRIR SQUARE ENGULF THE ARAB WORLD [JASMINE REVOLUTION IN TUNISIA... RISE OF MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IN EGYPT... ]

The United nations can declare the year 2011 as the "YEAR OF DEMOCRACY" or as the "YEAR OF ARAB UPRISING". Last month(January 2011), the world has witnessed "JASMINE REVOLUTION " in Tunisia which has resulted in the fall of its president BEN ALI ending 23 years of his reign. Later this month(February 2011), the controversial president of Egypt HOSNI MUBARAK was made to resign after 30 years long presidency. The reasons for the civil resistance in both the countries are more or less similar:- lack of freedom of speech and expression, poor living conditions , ineffective socio-economic development, corruption, police brutalities and the need for democratic reforms of political system. Political scholars also estimate that this trend would continue in the rest of the Arab world in general and Algeria, Yeman and Jordan in particular. These incidents are just the tip of the iceberg with far greater implications.

1. ARAB RENAISSANCE:- Generally the Arab governments are known by the twin aspects of "dictatorial style of functioning" and "religious fanaticism". These two aspects have no place in real democracy, as the latter relies on "popular accountability" and "secularism". Hope the succeeding governments in Tunisia and Egypt provide a real democratic solution to the impoverished masses.

2. THE RISE OF MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD:- "Muslim brotherhood" is the largest and the influential islamic organisation operating in the Arab countries . They mostly function as opposition parties or align themselves with the opposition parties in most of the Arab countries. It has played a decisive role in the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. It is widely percieved that its intention is to topple the Arab governments that adopt pro-US posture. Its immediate targets are percieved to be Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

3. UNCLE SAM'S DOUBLE STANDARD DEFINITION OF DEMOCRACY CANNOT CONTINUE FOR LONG:- USA on the grounds of "GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR" has invaded Iraq and Afghanistan with the so called purpose of installing democratic regimes in these countries. How ever, in other countries, it has actively supported various dictatorial regimes. Especially when Arab world is taken into consideration, USA is not at all concerned with the form of government, unless and until it is ensured with uninterrupted oil supplies.

4. ISRAEL HAS NO ALLY IN THE ARAB WORLD:- The Hosni Mubarak regime of Egypt is an ally of USA in the Israel-palestinian peace process. With the conclusion of camp David Accord, Egypt has been recieving Billion dollars military aid from USA. This was evident from the neutral reaction of Egypt during the Gaza blockade. USA has strategically used Egypt in the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

5. IRANIAN ROOSTERS OR TURKEY CHICKENS:- Whether the new governments of Tunisia and Egypt will adopt the form of "softcore secular state of Turkey" or "hardcore Islamic state of Iran" is a big question for the west.

Thus the political surge of the Arab countries is no longer an isolated event. It is deeply entangled in the global balance of power, peace and security of the middle east, Islamic terrorism, democracy and so on. It is of no use if these newly emerged regimes, do not cater the genuine aspirations of the Arab masses.

A BAD OMEN FROM OUR NEIGHBOUR [BANGLADESH RIFLES (BDR) VS BANGLADESH ARMY (BDA) ]

   On February 25^th, the world witnessed the lifting of about 70 army officers from the mass graves in the Bangladesh rifles military compound. This is the worst military mutiny ever to have happened in the Asian continent. Once again, it has raised the doubts that whether Bangladesh is our reliable neighbor in terms of security aspects. The reason for the revolt is assumed that the director-general of BDR is extremely unpopular among the soldiers of the lower cadres because of his corruption and bad treatment of the lower officers. As the director-general did not allow the soldiers to meet the prime minister sheikh hasina wajed, and express their grievances, they became violent and shot down the DG of BDR. They even held hostage of some army persons and later killed them. This incident has many implications.

First, Bangladesh civilian administration does not have good control over their military counterparts. Military is expected to occupy a prominent place in Bangladesh politics. Despite the PM of Bangladesh holding the defense portfolio, she could not control the mutiny.

Second, in order to combat the Indo-Bangla border insurgencies, drug &human trafficking, we need a responsible force of Bangladeshi rifles. So India is upset in this regard.

Third, setting up of two independent committees, one by the army and the other by the government to probe the mutiny, reflects the lack of confidence between the two parts. This is not desirable in a democracy.

Let us hope that the armed forces of Bangladesh remain with in their constitutional limits and be subservient to the civilian administration. This a lesson for Bangladesh that armed persons cannot be treated as mere casual labourers. Only now Pakistan has moved from military cover to civilian cover. Let Bangladesh do not repeat the same mistake.

THE KNOWN RIDER OF THE UNKNOWN TIGER [ PAKISTAN - AT THE VERGE OF BEING A FAILED STATE IN TERMS OF SECURITY]

Today, when I was watching the well often rain interrupted match of India Vs NewZealand, there was a flash news at the bottom, stating that the SriLankan cricket team have been brutally attacked by the Pakistani terrorist outfits. Yes, four SriLankan players and the SriLankan team manager have been injured. The terrorists were targeting the bus in which the SriLankan players were travelling. They were attacked by rocket launchers, pistols and AK-47s. Five Pakistani police personell were killed. Even cricket is not spared from these terrorist activities. This new tactic of the terrorists, in targeting the international players has many implications.

First, Pakistan which has been creating and using the terrorist outfits to achieve its political and military objectives, face the threat from its own child. Now the magnitude, extent, linkage and reach of these terrorist organizations has reached beyond the limit, that, it is definitely uncertain on the part of the country to control these outfits or bring the perpetrators of terror to justice.

Second, now the terrorist outfits are evolving to the next stage. Targeting the international players or international people has much significance in the international arena than any local target. Now the terrorist outfits are taking this as a tool to threaten and destabilize the Pakistani government.

Third, in terms of sports, Pakistan is well known, only for the game of cricket. The attack on the cricket players is definitely a set back to the Pakistani cricket team. Now all the countries of the world will refuse to go to Pakistan. So this is definitely a setback to the Pakistani cricket  board.

Fourth, as unfortunately Pakistan, Bangladesh and SriLanka have become a troublesome country in terms of security, in one way or the other, there is a doubt that the next cricket world cup 2011 is likely to be held in the Indian subcontinent.

Fifth, Pakistan has began to face more threat from its terrorist organizations than any other country for which it has been designed for.

Sixth, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen an earlier terrorist oraganisation of pakistan had close links with the LTTE. The LTTE carried heroine, arms and ammunitions from pakistan and afghanistan to other parts of the Islamic world. In return, LTTE obtained anti-aircraft weapons from HUM and ISI. Even now is alleged that LTTE and HUM has close contacts. So this incident can also be said as HUM paying their old debts to LTTE by attacking the SriLankans.

So, Pakistan can no longer route these terrorist organizations to India or Afghanistan. It should take this as a lesson that political or military objectives cannot be successfully achieved by these terrorist outfits through its well believed back door strategy. Some scholars have even alleged that they are riding on a tiger without any control. Of course, I do accept this stand. Even now, if Pakistan is not ready to destruct the terrorist bases, then definitely we can assume that Pakistan is marching towards the status of a failed state.

FATHER OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION – A Q KHAN [THE MERCHANT OF MENACE]

On February 6^th, I read a news item that stated that, the supreme court of Pakistan has struck down all the charges against the father of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, A Q Khan and declared that, there after khan will remain a free citizen of Pakistan. This incident will have major implications in the present world scenario. 

In the year 1972, khan worked for URENCO, an Holland based uranium enrichment facility. When India conducted operation “smiling Buddha”, Pakistan was very desperate in having the minimum nuclear credibility. The Dutch authorities accuse that khan has stolen the blue prints of gas centrifuges and suddenly left Holland. When CIA assured that, it would track and monitor khan, Holland left the responsibility to US. Subsequently, Pakistan established a nuclear research facility at Kahuta. Later in 1998 Pakistan conducted its first nuclear test code named “Chagai-1”. 

It is generally alleged there was a Chinese hand of support in the development of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb. It is also alleged that Pakistan was trading nuclear secrets with North Korea for Ballistic missile technology. It is also alleged that Khan was frequently contacted by Al-Qaeda to build a radiological bomb and the crude nuclear bomb. IAEA reported Iran has built Uranium enrichment facility based on the blue print of URENCO. In 2004, Govt of Pakistan reported that khan has divulged nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea. There after he was placed under house arrest. 

6^th February turned the events dramatic. With his release, it is a tough time for the IAEA to safeguard the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Atleast, what we could hope is that Khan’s nuclear knowledge should not fall in the hands of al-Qaeda or Hizbul-mujahideen. Let us hope for the best and plan for the worst.

THE ROMANTICIST PHILOSOPHER OF ARAB-ISRAELI LOVE STORY [FROM COLONELL QADAFFI TO MAHATMA QADAFFI]

Very recently, I read an article about the one state solution propounded by the Libyan ruler MUAMMMAR QADAFFI for the Arab-Israeli conflict. He has been the greatest thinker of pan-Arabism and pan-Islamism. His ideas always revolved around the unity of the Arab countries, the cause of the Palestinian people and the liberation of Palestine from the imperialist clutches of the Zionist Israel. But I don’t understand his intention behind his recent “ONE-STATE SOLUTION” to the Palestinian-Israel conflict on the following grounds.

 First, why does the Arab world take a moderate and soft (POLITICAL) stand to Israel which has a scant regard for human rights and the future of Palestine. Israeli defence forces go on killing the Palestinian civilians in the name of so called combating terror.

 Second, Israel has not respected the UN mandate or the international public opinion in general and the Arab public opinion in particular.

 Third, Israel does not want the Arab-nationalism to foster on a separate Palestinian state. Even it has succeeded in creating the divide between the HAMAS led by Ismail Haneyah and FATAH led by  Mohammed Abbas with the back up of the western intelligence, money, and the muscle power.

 

Fourth, Israel has never recognized the rights of the refugees who have fled in a mass exodus to resettle there. It does not take responsibility for the mass exodus of Palestinians in 1948 war (AlNaqba) and the aftermath.

 

Fifth, Israel has no intention of ceding Eastern Jerusalem in the hands of Palestine.

 Sixth, Israel has constructed illegal settlements in the region of west bank, and has no intention of evacuating its settlements from the west bank.

 Seventh, its economic blockade of Gaza has resulted in human sufferings.

 Lastly, “operation Castlead” of Israel has killed nearly 1500 Palestinian people starting from December 2008.

 When Israel is brutally attacking the Palestinian civilians, it is not fair on the Libyan ruler to express his idealistic ideas of one-state solution. Any ideas of final settlement should focus towards the practical and pragmatic solution of independent Palestine state with complete Palestinian authority and sovereignty. So, Mr.qadaffiji, your Gandhian ideals will not solve the Arab-Israeli problem